Precipitation masks the effect of temperature on Birch airborne pollen start, and previous summer temperature affects pollen intensity: a 31-year study at its southwestern distribution boundary

Abstract

We studied the relationship between the occurrence of airborne pollen of Betula spp. and climate, during the main pollination season, as well as before the pollen season and in the preceding year. Our aim was to understand how environmental conditions could influence the main pollen season and the intensity of airborne pollen presence at the meridional boundary of the Betula forest distribution in Europe. For this purpose, pollen monitoring was conducted using Lanzoni VPPS 2000 volumetric trap and weather data from the nearest meteorological station. The study area was located in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, specifically in three areas with diverse mesoclimate: Vigo (Atlantic), Ourense (Mediterranean) and Lugo (Cantabrian), which had a distinct oceanic influence. Aerobiological analysis was conducted based on the Spanish aerobiology network protocol. Data on precipitation, maximum, minimum and mean temperature were selected for three time windows: 1st the main pollen season period, 2nd from 5 to 90 days before the onset of pollen presence, with a cumulative five-day interval, and 3rd the average monthly climate of the previous year. Precipitation delays the onset of the main pollination season as well as the end of the season, increasing pollen counts in the post-peak interval at all three sites. Temperature during the pollen season affects duration and pollen integral differently among sites. The pollen integral shows an increasing trend over the last decade's at all three areas. The rise trend detected in the minimum temperature of the previous summer explains these increases in the three sites. In conclusion, the effect of climate prior to and during the main pollen season have varied effects on date-related data across mesoclimates, while temperature during bud floral primordia development can be considered as a timeframe for predicting pollen intensity in the following year through the entire area.