Projections of wind energy resources in the Caribbean for the 21st century

Abstract

The Caribbean has suitable conditions for a significant wind energy development, which makes a good planning for the future renewable energy mix essential. The impact of climate change on Caribbean wind power has been analyzed by means of an ensemble of CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) under the RCP8.5 warming scenario. The offshore wind energy resource was classified for the historical period and for the future considering wind energy factors, environmental risk factors and cost factors whose weights were estimated by a Delphi method. Future projections show a maximum annual wind increase, ∼0.4 ms −1 (8%), in most of the Caribbean, except in the Yucatán Basin. This increment occurs mainly during the wet season, ∼0.5 ms −1 (∼10%), associated with changes in the extension of the North Atlantic Subtropical High, which will strengthen the Caribbean low-level jet. Additionally, the moderate wind increase, ∼0.2 ms −1 (∼4%), projected during the dry season is restricted to the southeastern coast and it is associated with an increment in the land-ocean temperature difference (∼1 °C), which will intensify local easterly winds. The low-level jet region was classified as the richest wind energy resource in the Caribbean for the future with a larger extension compared to the historical period.