Downscaling CMIP6 climate projections to classify the future offshore wind energy resource in the Spanish territorial waters

Abstract

The Spanish government has established a Maritime Spatial Planning including areas for wind farms, with the aim of contributing up to 40% of European floating offshore wind power by 2030. Thus, it is crucial to assess the current and future offshore wind energy resource in these areas, and classify the near future resource by considering wind power density and other relevant factors like resource stability, environmental risks, and installation costs. To attain the necessary high spatial resolution, a dynamic downscaling of a multi-model ensemble from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model in Spanish territorial waters, including the Iberian Peninsula, Balearic Islands, and Canary Islands. Future projections were considered under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2–4.5 and 5–8.5 scenarios. According to the results, Spain’s offshore wind energy potential is projected to grow in the upcoming years, particularly in the Atlantic Ocean and surrounding the Canary Islands. Wind resource classification in the potential offshore wind farm areas reveals noteworthy diversity, with ratings ranging from “fair” (3/7) to “outstanding” (6/7). The most promising areas for offshore wind farm development in the near future are located in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula and the Canary Islands.