Future changes of hot extremes in Spain: towards warmer conditions

Abstract

One of the most relevant effects of climate change is its influence on the frequency and intensity of extreme events. The analysis and understanding of these events are of great importance due to the probability of causing environmental and social damage. In this study, we investigate changes in extreme hot temperature events over Spain for the near future (2021–2050) in relation to a control period (1971–2000) by using regional climate model simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project. The projection results show a significant increase in the number of extremely warm temperatures throughout the area. A significant strong increase in warm days and warm nights is projected over the domain. Simulations also project more frequent summer days and tropical nights over most parts of the region. The most significant increase in relation to the present climatology corresponds to warm nights, while simulations corresponding to tropical nights project the smallest changes.