Predictive value of carcinoembryonic antigen in symptomatic patients without colorectal cancer: A post-hoc analysis within the COLONPREDICT cohort

Abstract

We aimed to assess the risk of cancer in patients with abdominal symptoms after a complete colonoscopy without colorectal cancer (CRC), according to the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) concentration, as well as its diagnostic accuracy. For this purpose, we performed a post-hoc analysis within a cohort of 1431 patients from the COLONPREDICT study, prospectively designed to assess the fecal immunochemical test accuracy in detecting CRC. Over 36.5 ± 8.4 months, cancer was detected in 115 (8%) patients. Patients with CEA values higher than 3 ng/mL revealed an increased risk of cancer (HR 2.0, 95% CI 1.3–3.1), CRC (HR 4.4, 95% CI 1.1–17.7) and non-gastrointestinal cancer (HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.0–2.8). A new malignancy was detected in 51 (3.6%) patients during the first year and three variables were independently associated: anemia (OR 2.8, 95% CI 1.3–5.8), rectal bleeding (OR 0.3, 95% CI 0.1–0.7) and CEA level >3 ng/mL (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.7–7.1). However, CEA was increased only in 31.8% (95% CI, 16.4–52.7%) and 50% (95% CI, 25.4–74.6%) of patients with and without anemia, respectively, who would be diagnosed with cancer during the first year of follow-up. On the basis of this information, CEA should not be used to assist in the triage of patients presenting with lower bowel symptoms who have recently been ruled out a CRC.